Hook
Wang Chun, co-founder of F2Pool, posted at 2 AM on August 20: “The bear market is over.” Hours later, on-chain sleuths confirmed he had moved 5,000 ETH and 200 WBTC to Binance—a position he accumulated in June at $1,800 ETH and $26,000 BTC. The implied profit? $3.4 million. The message? He sold part of his stash before making the announcement.
This is not a bottom signal. This is a liquidity event dressed in miner’s boots.
Watch the order book, not the headline.
Context
Wang Chun is a name that carries weight in crypto. Co-founder of F2Pool, one of the oldest mining pools, he has been in the industry since 2013. When a miner of his stature speaks, the community listens—especially in a bear market starved for good news. His claim that “the bear is over” spread like wildfire across Telegram groups and crypto Twitter, sparking a short-lived 3% pop in ETH and BTC.
But the context of his statement is critical. He made it after a 70% drawdown from the 2021 highs, after the collapse of FTX, after the regulatory crackdowns of 2023, and after the ETF approvals of 2024 failed to ignite a sustained rally. The market is in a grinding, low-liquidity bear phase, where sentiment is fragile and every bullish headline is met with skepticism.
Wang Chun’s own on-chain history tells a different story. In June 2025, he systematically accumulated 70,600 ETH and 966 WBTC, buying the dip as prices fell. By July, as prices rebounded, he began transferring portions to Binance—a classic “buy the dip, sell the bounce” strategy. His August 20 tweet is the capstone of that trade, not a revelation.
Core
Let’s deconstruct the claim with data. First, the macro context. The global liquidity environment remains tight. The Federal Reserve has held interest rates at 5.5% for over a year, and quantitative tightening continues. The DXY (US Dollar Index) remains elevated, sucking liquidity out of risk assets. Crypto is not decoupled from macro; it never was. In 2022, I built a liquidity sustainability model that predicted the collapse of DeFi yields based on real treasury health. The same model now shows that institutional inflows, while positive, are not enough to offset the drag from high real rates. The risk-free rate is still 5%, and until that drops, capital will flow to Treasuries, not to volatile crypto assets.
Second, on-chain data. Exchange reserves for ETH and BTC have been relatively flat over the past three months, hovering around 2.3 million ETH and 1.8 million BTC. There is no meaningful withdrawal trend that signals accumulation. Stablecoin inflows to exchanges are also muted, with the total supply of USDT and USDC growing only 2% month-over-month—far below the 15% growth seen during genuine bull phases. The MVRV ratio for BTC is 1.2, indicating that the average holder is barely in profit. Historically, bottoms occur when MVRV drops below 0.8, signaling capitulation. We are not there.
Third, the mining sector itself. Hashrate has remained stable, but mining revenue per TH/s is at multi-year lows due to the halving and rising energy costs. Miners are selling their BTC to cover operational expenses. According to data from Glassnode, miner outflows to exchanges have increased by 30% since July. Wang Chun’s tweet may be an attempt to talk up the market to improve his own mining margins, not a genuine macro call.
Fourth, the “leader” effect. When a prominent figure makes a bullish statement, it creates a self-fulfilling prophecy—but only temporarily. In 2023, I analyzed the impact of similar tweets from industry leaders during the FTX aftermath. The pattern was consistent: a 24-48 hour price bump, followed by a return to the downtrend as the market absorbed the lack of fundamental change. The same pattern is playing out now.
When the 'leader' speaks, count his coins, not his words.
Contrarian
The conventional narrative is that Wang Chun’s accumulation and declaration are signs of a knowledgeable insider calling the bottom. I argue the opposite. The fact that he is publicly declaring the bear market over while simultaneously reducing his position suggests a deliberate effort to create exit liquidity. This is not conspiracy; it’s basic game theory. If you hold a large position and want to sell into a rally, you first need to convince others that the rally is sustainable.
Furthermore, the decoupling thesis—that crypto is now a macro-independent asset—is dangerously flawed. The 2024 ETF approvals were supposed to bring institutional stability, but instead, they have made BTC more correlated to the Nasdaq 100 than ever. The correlation coefficient has risen to 0.65, up from 0.4 in 2023. When the Fed blinks, crypto will move with equities, not against them. Until then, any rally is a bear market rally.
I see a parallel to the 2018 bottom call by prominent miners. In November 2018, after BTC dropped to $3,200, several mining pool operators declared the bottom. They were wrong. BTC fell another 40% to $3,100 before the real bottom in December. The difference? In 2018, the miners were selling their inventory to stay afloat. Today, the same dynamic is at play, but with more sophisticated on-chain tracking.
In a bear market, survival means questioning every bullish narrative.
Takeaway
Wang Chun’s tweet is a data point, not a thesis. The bear market’s end will be signaled by multiple confirmations: a dovish Fed pivot, sustained accumulation across thousands of addresses, a surge in stablecoin creation, and a breakdown in the correlation between crypto and equities. We have none of these.
My advice: ignore the microphone. Focus on the order book. Track the liquidity flows. Preserve capital. The real bottom will be quiet, not tweeted at 2 AM.